Last week, I attended the K5 Future Retail Conference in Berlin—a must-attend event for anyone involved in digital commerce. Beyond the engaging conversations and inspiring exhibitors, one program highlight stands out every year as the centerpiece: the K5 Theses. In a compact format, industry leaders share their boldest predictions for the future of e-commerce. And this year, they really pulled out all the stops. In today’s newsletter, I’m giving you an overview to read through and discuss! For over 15 years, Comsysto Reply has been implementing complex e-commerce solutions for clients across all industries. At the same time, we track and analyze relevant trends in our e-commerce lab to ensure we are ready for tomorrow's challenges today. We share our insights here—every Tuesday!
Artificial Intelligence: Agents are taking over the internet
AI was the dominant theme at K5 and was also strongly represented in the theses.
Agentic traffic will be almost on par with human traffic by 2030—and Google Search will be cut in half during the same period. This isn't even just a thesis; it’s a highly plausible market analysis from Stefan Wenzel.
AI agents will soon buy and sell better than you do. The click is becoming irrelevant; only the result matters. For example, customers could specify the price at which they would buy a product—if the operator of an army of agents knows that 20,000 people would buy an item if it were €10 cheaper, then there is surely an agent that can negotiate that price as a bulk discount. In short: whoever controls the agents controls the market. At least, that’s how Paul Krausssees it.
And Alexander Graf is certain: for poor players in e-commerce, AI is not an opportunity, but a death sentence. Only the best and most innovative will become even better because of it!
The role of the shop: obsolete model or sanctuary?
Also from Alexander Graf comes the quote:
“Online shops are the diesel engines of e-commerce! Anyone hiring an e-commerce manager in 2025 is also hiring someone to install fax machines.”
In other words: here, everything is fully optimized, nothing new is happening anymore, and everyone is just waiting for the end. As proof, he cites Zalando – arguably the best e-commerce company in Europe, yet it still only achieves an EBITDA margin of 0-5%. In his opinion, the platforms have won, because owning data is more important than selling products yourself, as that is the only way to sell goods in the right context and thus as effectively as possible.
Taking a slightly softer approach, Stefan Wenzel strikes a similar chord. For him, classic online shops are becoming the “vinyl record of customer access” – still relevant for enthusiasts because the brand experience is so tangible there when the quality is right. But no longer a mass phenomenon.
And Kristina Mertens also believes that customer access will change massively. Context-optimized content must be the core of future e-commerce, not just an optional extra. And with this content, brands must go exactly where the customer is – not the other way around. Keyword: social commerce – there will be more than enough interested parties there in the long run, too. In your own online shop, however, there won't be.
The change will be rapid!
Where everyone agrees: a great deal will change very quickly. This is true in general in the current climate, but especially so in e-commerce. Stefan Wenzel predicts that fixed costs will be cut in half through automation over the next 18 months – because it’s possible, or because it has to be.
And because everything is moving so fast, Karo Junker de Neui is certain: Speed beats strategy! Because the future cannot be planned, what you need most is a good setup for change – solutions for almost every problem already exist; we just need to apply them consistently and in the right places. That is exactly how we see it at Comsysto Reply, too!
That’s it for today – and here’s what’s next
And with all this technical innovation, we often lose sight of one point that Johannes Altmann emphasized strongly: many retailers are wishing for customers who no longer exist! This is where a sense of reality is needed – you cannot conjure up a target group that barely exists or doesn't exist at all through marketing. A great many people in Germany currently have very little money available for consumption, and naturally, low-cost competitors from Asia are capturing the market – not my own product, which no one can afford.
Which theses do you find plausible, and where do you vehemently disagree? What’s missing? In two weeks, I’ll be sharing my own outlook for the next 12 months in e-commerce here, based on the K5 theses. But first, we’ll be looking at a completely different topic next week – stay tuned!
See you next week!
Christian & the Comsysto Reply e-Commerce Lab