Two weeks ago, I summarized the famous K5 theses from Germany's leading retail conference here. Prominent industry experts shared their forecasts on where the market is heading and which trends will take hold—or fail to do so. Building on that, today I’m sharing my own perspective on the next 12 months. For over 15 years, Comsysto Reply has been implementing complex e-commerce solutions for clients across all industries. In parallel, we track and analyze relevant trends in our e-commerce lab to ensure we are ready for tomorrow's challenges today. We share our insights here—every Tuesday!
Thesis 1: Fulfillment will become the decisive competitive factor for B2C retention
Everything that happens after an order is placed is already important, but this aspect is about to become even more critical. Why? It’s simple: all post-purchase touchpoints remain deeply human. How quickly does my package arrive? What delivery options do I have, and how smoothly do they work? What is my first impression of the quality when unboxing? How is the service quality if something isn't right? How convenient is the returns process? Do payments and refunds work flawlessly? Online retailers must reach a baseline level of quality in all these areas to stand out positively to the consumer.
This has little influence on the first order—how could it? But for retention, i.e., repeat customers, these exact processes are essential. And I 100% agree with Stefan Wenzel’s assessment at K5: retention is more important than conversion. Whoever can keep this organically high will win! Acquiring new customers will always be expensive, and for that investment to pay off, they need to have the highest possible Customer Lifetime Value (Wikipedia). That doesn't happen with a single order...
Speaking of conversion: the online shopping experience itself will become increasingly agentic and automated, and "this is such a nice place to shop" will soon no longer be a competitive advantage. We have covered this in our newsletter several times, e.g., here or here. This is precisely why investments in classic storefronts will likely decline. The saved capital will then shift toward discoverability via AI agents—and, of course, into fulfillment.
I may be a little ahead of the curve here, but if so, we are only talking about a year or two. It won't take long for the massive transformation of e-commerce to reach both consumer behavior and the majority of retailers.
Thesis 2: AI is to B2B sales what the internet was to B2C retail
The catalog business was too impractical and cumbersome to make mail-order retail truly successful. It only became viable for the masses with the internet, because buying online could actually be faster and easier than going to a store. And by that, I primarily mean the broad base of retailers—yes, many people had the Quelle catalog at home. But there weren't many players of that size, and the fixed costs were enormous.
The same applies to B2B sales today—it is usually much more complex, requires more explanation, and is highly personalized. Building an online sales channel that works well enough to actually generate revenue has, until now, been manageable for only a few companies. And that is exactly what is changing right now! It is becoming easier to build good solutions when I only need to orchestrate the right agents instead of implementing everything by hand. Furthermore, the development of the remaining software is also becoming more efficient thanks to AI.
I predict a massive increase in digitalization and automation in B2B sales over the next 12 months—how much of that will be live in a year is debatable, but we will certainly see the rising investments.
Thesis 3: In 2026, "disposable content" will become the standard
You could also put it more positively: content will be highly personalized and context-dependent. It is no longer about achieving the widest possible reach with a single asset. Instead, much of it will be produced and deployed on-demand to best support the exact part of the customer journey the user is in at that very moment. A concrete example: A user's product search began with the intention of finding a new outfit for a sailing trip. There are already two combinable clothing items in the cart, and the recommendation engine has a suggestion for a third. Presenting this exact combination with a model who is currently on a sailboat—perhaps even as dynamic video content—definitely has a higher chance of an upsell than a static product image. And for the user, even without an immediate intent to purchase, it increases anticipation for the planned event and thus improves the experience in any case.
And the users? They will continue to consume content very selectively. Yes, everything needs to be in the right place when we need it. But in most cases, we will simply scroll past it. We are going to produce more content that is never actually consumed by a human or an agent than ever before. And yes, that will be completely normal. Even if it won't necessarily have a positive impact on the carbon footprint of e-commerce...
That’s it for today – and here’s what’s next
So much for my predictions – where do you agree? What do you see differently? One thing is certain: things will remain dynamic, and I would be quite surprised if all these theses turn out to be exactly right. However, I would be even more surprised if things turned out completely differently. The next 12 months will tell – and I will definitely revisit this newsletter in a year’s time.
Next week, however, we’ll shift our focus back to the intersection of B2B and B2C! Specifically, we’ll take a look at what B2B shops can learn from the B2C world – and why that will soon no longer be optional.
See you next week!
Christian & the Comsysto Reply e-Commerce Lab